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The indexes are sitting near record highs.

But underneath the surface, the market is telling a very different story.

Only **23.78% of stocks are above their 40-day moving average**, Treasury yields are climbing again, oil remains elevated, and market leadership continues to narrow.

So which market should we believe?

That is exactly what I break down in today’s Morning Market Prep.

The warning signs matter, but they are **not trade signals by themselves**.

Price is King. Confirmation over anticipation.

Watch today’s video here:

https://youtu.be/n3oTxytwiQE

**Trade the Market. Not the Noise.**

Most traders don't lose money because their entry was wrong. They lose because their stop was never based on anything real to begin with.

👉Get the Free Structural Risk Matrix PDF Here👉 Link https://bit.ly/4hbx9pg 

I see it constantly. A trader picks a stop because it's "only 4%" or "only 5%." That number feels safe, but the market never agreed to it. The chart doesn't know your percentage and it doesn't care. Price structure is what decides whether your trade is still valid, not a figure you typed into a spreadsheet.

In my new video I walk through the price action risk matrix I use on every trade. Three questions, in order:

Where does the setup give me an acceptable entry.
How much risk is there to the structural support where the trade is proven wrong, measured in real dollars, not a percentage.
Does the potential reward justify taking that risk in the first place.

If those three don't line up, there's no trade. Simple as that.

I show a winning example on AVTR and a losing one on Netflix, because showing you only the wins would be dishonest. The Netflix trade got stopped out and that's fine. The stop did its job. It told me the thesis was wrong and got me out before a small loss turned into a big one. That's what a stop is for. It's not there to save you from normal price movement. It's there to save you from being wrong.

Once your stop is anchored to structure instead of a guess, position sizing becomes simple math. You know your dollar risk before you ever place the trade.

Full breakdown, including how this applies to options using delta, is in the video. There's also a free structural risk and position sizing worksheet linked in the description.

Watch it here: https://youtu.be/9QcryJ6pX10

Price is King. We follow it. We don't predict it.

Do you ever enter a good trade...and then talk yourself right back out of it?
You watch every candle.
Every wick gets your attention.
A normal pullback suddenly feels like something is wrong.
And before you know it, you've closed a trade that may have been working just fine.
Here's something I've learned after years of working with traders:
The problem may not always be your discipline. It might be your chart.
In this lesson, I show you how Heikin-Ashi candles can remove some of the visual noise from price action and make trends easier to see and manage.
It won't fix a bad trading plan.
But it may help stop a good plan from being sabotaged by market noise.
If you've got some extra time over the long weekend, pull up a few of your own charts and follow along with me.
▶️ Watch the full lesson here https://youtu.be/9uh81UtfvoY 
Price is King. Follow it. Don't predict it.

I asked ChatGPT for five stocks.

Then I ran the exact same prompt again.

And again.

The answers changed.

But that wasn't the biggest problem.

AI started adding trading criteria I had never given it.

That is where this experiment became much more interesting.

If you don't clearly define AI's job, evidence standards, boundaries, and where its responsibility ends, AI can start filling in the blanks with a process that may not be yours.

That's what I break down in my latest AI for Real Traders video.

More importantly, I show you how to turn a vague AI request into a disciplined research process where the trader remains in control.

I also created a FREE AI Trading Prompt Guide to go with the video. It includes ready-to-use research prompts, a build-your-own framework, and the Trader Takeover process.

Watch the full video here:
https://youtu.be/nCQ3x3QqZw4

AI can help a stock earn your attention.

It still has to earn the trade.

Price is King.

Morning Market Prep Update

Due to a power outage this morning, I was unable to record and publish today’s Morning Market Prep.

I apologize for the inconvenience and expect to be back online Tuesday morning with our regular market preparation. Thank you for your patience, understanding, and continued support.

SPY is 0.25% from a record, but volume is thinning. Is this exhaustion or a new launchpad?

Overtrading is one of the fastest ways traders quietly lose money.

It doesn’t feel dangerous in the moment…

“Just one more trade.”

Then again.
And again.

Until nothing is clear anymore.

I just posted a short breaking this down 👇
https://youtube.com/shorts/NqbPJpLhmh0

📘 And if you want the full breakdown of the 6 biggest trading mistakes (and how to fix them), you can download the free guide here: 👉 https://tinyurl.com/mrx76c63

Update: Today’s Morning Prep Video 🛑

Frustrating news, everyone—I have today's Morning Prep ready to go, but YouTube is currently stuck in the "check" phase and refuses to finish the upload.

Rather than letting you wait on a "pending" screen while the opening bell rings, I’m calling a technical timeout. It looks like the only thing with more overhead resistance than the DIA today is the YouTube upload server!

Trade your plan, stay disciplined with your risk management, and I’ll see you back here as soon as the pipes are cleared.

Morning Market Update – February 20, 2026

We’re heading into the session with risk building beneath the surface.

Volatility moved back above 20 while market participation weakened to its lowest level of the year. Oil also pushed higher on rising geopolitical tension, and with a light earnings calendar today, price is likely to react more to headlines and positioning than scheduled events.

Technically, the indexes continue forming lower highs under resistance, which keeps the market vulnerable to sharper swings — especially heading into weekend uncertainty.

Reminder: you don’t have to trade every day.
Sometimes protecting capital is the trade.

Have a good session and stay disciplined.

Good morning everyone —

Futures are pointing to a modestly lower open as the market continues working through AI uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and a heavy earnings slate.

Yesterday’s strength faded at resistance and participation remains weak beneath the surface, so expect larger intraday swings and a more cautious tone today. Environments like this tend to punish over-trading — process and risk management matter more than ever.

Also, thank you all for your patience while I recover. I truly appreciate the support and I’m looking forward to getting fully back into the regular content routine very soon.

Have a great trading day and stay disciplined.